TJC,
I'm not sure how coffee will open or trade tomorrow but this cold front shouldn't be a bullish factor.
Odds of it being cold enough for frost (other than possibly a few of the coldest spots in Parana)
are very slim.
Early/middle parts of last week had some potential. There were a couple of models and runs
that were cold enough for a light/moderate damage event (even while the majority of guidance
was too warm).
Friday's guidance universally supported no freeze.
At that time, i would say the chances were down to 5% already so it's hard to say
how much frost risk premium will come out with chances of something like 1% (my opinion).

Even in a typical year, this time frame still has frost premium. That along with harvest
makes for a very strong down for seasonals. Coffee almost never goes up during the
June/July to mid August time frame without a frost.

You will see plenty of frost scares and price spikes but very few turn out and
the price goes back down and lower.

However, this big break out higher has not acted like a typical frost scare regarding price.
Typically, you'd expect to see very volatile ups and downs ahead of the potential freeze event.
We made new highs and hit a ton of buy stops and jumped much higher that day but after that
it was a steady climb.

If i had to guess it would be that coffee will be lower on Monday and this week.