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The Coffee Traders Forum

Re: July 4th Weekend -1994
By:met.mike
Date: Wednesday, 2 July 2008, 2:20 pm
In Response To: July 4th Weekend -1994 (psoriasis)

The major freezes of 1994 were on June 24 and Jul 10.
They were no surprise/advertised days in advance.

Coffee may have exploded higher when we opened after the Holiday
but:
1. It had already rallied from the June freeze damage
2. The July freeze was several days away.

My guess is that you're right but for this reason. The market/forecast going into the weekend
did not have a 2nd freeze. Back in 1994, with forecasts/guidance
not going out as far as they do today, the July 10 freeze event would not
even have showed up.
After the weekend, though the freeze was 4-5 days away, it was
being picked up by models/meteorologists. Anticipation of the 2nd
big freeze coming up which was not there
before the weekend is what ignited the explosion higher.

1994 was the last time we had freezes of that magnitude.
2 within a month suggests a very anomalous pattern which was
favorable for cold air delivery.
2 separate extreme cold blasts in a month, when the chance are for 1
every 10 years(since coffee moved to lower latitudes) is impressive.

Maps going out 2 weeks have no freeze threat. They don't even
have the pattern needed to cause a freeze. After this moderate
cold front comes through later in the week with chilly weather
for a few days, it looks very mild with near 0 odds of a freeze.

There's still over a month left in the freeze season. Plenty of time
for the pattern to change.

Responses To This Message

Re: July 4th Weekend -1994 / met.mike
Steve H -- Wednesday, 2 July 2008, 2:33 pm