A real damage to the bulls camp has now been executed this week and also in the month of January.
After making weekly higher highs since july/2009 and higher lows, we now have the first lower high and lower low and also the monthly bar of January has taken out the Dec Low (13580) and the Nov Low (13305). This is a significant damage done to the bulls chart and possibly the beginning of a new down trend, longer term.

Technically IMO, I don't think we have seen the lows yet in the dailies and it is possible to visit the 13000 area next week. Daily Stochastics and MACD are still in bad shape. Price is below all MA's and I would see a SHORT TERM TREND change once it trades and settles above the 9 daily MA.

Fundamentally the problems persist in Colombia with UGQ differentials at +74 above the relevant months. Some Central America's problems and the well known controversy over Brazil's crop. But all of this fundamental side of the market is being overshadowed by the global fundamentals: US Dollar becoming stronger, China restricting commodities imports, Greece and possibly Spain and Portugal debt default and Obamas proposal on restricting banks size making hedge funds to stay on the side and therefore limiting their commodities investment.

In the weekly chart I have a low cycle due within the week ending Friday Feb 5th and Friday Feb 19th. First notice day coming soon on Feb 18th and fixations will accelerate thus putting pressure on the market. Brazil's Real and Colombian Peso devaluating also putting more pressure to the sell side.

Happy Tradings!!

Nagual1