The Coffee market has ben lethargic this week mostly dominated by small specs on very low volume and confined between the 12800/13300 area, trading mostly within 13185/13285 a well known value area.
The 9 daily MA has been serving as resistance everytime it tries to move up.
Since the last high of 14870 on Jan 11th when the market changed from an uptrend to a downtrend, the market gave a short signal on Jan 15th that lasted 16 trading days. It then gave a long signal on Feb 10th of short duration for only 6 trading days, to give then the actual short signal that has already been in place up to yesterday for 9 trading days. Weekly, it has not changed the short signal yet which has been in place for 6 trading weeks.
The market having changed trends from up to down on early January is demonstrating and confirming that this new downtrend is the dominating one and the short signals in the dailies are to last longer than the ephimeral long ones.

The last weekly pivot : 13215,, market unable to close above it by closing at 13040.
Prior week pivot : 13600,, market unable to close above it by closing at 13120.
This weekly pivot is 13072 which is closer to the weekly close of 13040. If it is able to manage at least a couple of daily closes above it, I think we might be in for a short term rally on a buy signal.

Fundamentally from the Brazil's side the news are various. Some people argue that the new crop is a monster one up to 60 million bags. Some others including Brazilian cooperatives talk abot 48 million; so who knows who is rigth. To me the only one right is the market itself from its action, which up to now, does not demonstrate too much bullishness.
Colombia maintains its shortage of coffee, this being demonstrated by the high differentials which have managed in the last month to move back up from the mid +50's to the mid to high +60's.
Some tightness in Central America and even Brazilian's differentials have improved.
According to ICO statistics there is a gap between world growing consumption and production and inventories.
Seeing so many contradictory views from some many sides, at least in my trading style, I take the market as it presents every day and do my moves. As I said, so far this year the market itself from its action is showing to favor the short side and corresponding to my trading style I change every time I see a new signal in the dailies.

WEEKLY STATS as of Friday's close:

PIVOT 13072
RES1 13274
RES2 13552
SUPP1 12839
SUPP2 12637

4WEEKLY MA 13324
9WEEKLY MA 13649
18WEEKLY MA 13881

Heaviest traded area during the week was between 13015/13220.

DAILY STATS as of Friday's close:

PIVOT 13055
RES1 13110
RES2 13180
SUPP1 12985
SUPP2 12930

4DAILY MA 13125
9DAILY MA 13143
18DAILY MA 13288

Heaviest traded area Friday 13030 and Thursday 13015/20.

NOTE:
IMO if the market is able to hold above 13000, 2 consecutive days on a closing basis, I think we would have a buy signal for a few days.

Happy Tradings!!!

Nagual1